Bull Market Early or Bear Market Trap?

For virtual currency investors, the more important question is whether this round of currency price increases is a bull market restart or a bear market trap.
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Yesterday evening, Bitcoin experienced a price spike in just one hour. The price has risen from the violence of around US$6,800 to a maximum of US$8,100. During the day it increased by almost 20%. Led by Bitcoin, other virtual currencies also led a strong recovery, with one currency gaining as much as over 50%. In the face of the collective heating up of the virtual currency market, many investors exclaimed that the “bull market is back”.
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According to data from CoinMarketCap, the market value of Bitcoin increased by almost 20 billion US dollars within a single day, and the entire virtual currency market also experienced a general market growth. There was no “seeking” effect. According to Bitcoin’s daily transaction volume exceeding US$9 billion, billions of incremental funds should have entered the market yesterday, instead of equity funds.
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In fact, during the Bitcoin boom, Bitfinex, the digital currency trading platform, also saw a number of large purchases. With the increase in Bitcoin buying, many shorts were forced to close their positions, further extending the market’s uptrend. Nick Kirk, Cypher Capital’s chief data officer, also expressed approval for the phenomenon. At the same time, he also believes that this sharp jump is more likely to be a response to the release of early regulatory pressures.
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Pantera Capital Management, one of the world’s largest digital currency hedge funds, said Bitcoin has bottomed out. US$6,500 is the lowest point for a Bitcoin bear market. Bitcoin will be above this price for most of this year and may even surpass the record high of US$20,000 last year.
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Fundstrat founder Tom Lee also expressed confidence in Bitcoin. He believes that the current Bitcoin P/B ratio and other indicators are almost the same as in the bear market at the end of 2014, and he has formed an important technical correction. Based on this, he stated that the value of Bitcoin could increase more than three times this year and reach 25,000 US dollars at the end of this year.
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Historical data shows that Bitcoin has indeed risen in the second quarter of the calendar year. In the second quarter of 2011, Bitcoin rose as much as 1964%, 36.25% in 2012… 61.98% in 2016 and 131% in 2017.
Of course, Bitcoin OTC volume is also showing signs of market recovery. Since March, Bitcoin trading volumes in Canada, Europe, Vietnam, Mexico and Vietnam have grown to record highs.
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With the successive reception of large financial institutions such as the hedge fund giant Soros and the top financial group of the Rockefeller families, the financial size of the virtual money market will further expand.
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However, it is worth noting that even though Bitcoin is currently experiencing strong growth, it is still in a descending channel and has not yet been effectively broken. It remains to be seen whether the virtual currency market has really turned around. Investors should always exercise caution and pay attention to position management.
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More importantly, the world’s major Bitcoin markets, including the United States, have sought to establish regulatory frameworks. Regulatory uncertainty will inevitably have a greater impact on the short-term development of the virtual currency market. In the long run, an orderly, healthy market can go even further.
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